Post to BJ21.com -- My betting system

Here's a broadbrush idea I'm throwing out to the Green Chip community. This idea is more theoretical than practical, given today's overall playing conditions, but this idea may still have its uses for today's APs. Also, this idea might be “old hat,” and I have just not heard of it before.

Evaluations and tweaks encouraged.

Here's the basic idea:

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Multi-portfolio Betting System (MBS)
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The Multi-portfolio Betting System (MBS) can help camouflage variations in betting with the count, while preserving a good bet spread.

To explain MBS, I will use the example of a single deck, one-player game, dealt 6 hands deep. (This concept behind can also be adapted to DD games. It is not so useful for shoe games, it appears to me – but maybe someone has a way to make it work.)

The idea behind MBS is to pre-assign different betting ranges to each of the 6 hands, and to adhere to these different ranges when varying the bet with the count.

In other words, all of the bets for a given hand number in each deck (i.e., hand #1, hand #2, etc.) will follow a particular betting spread assigned that hand number. For example, hand #1 might have a 3-6 chip range of bets; hand #2 might have a 2-7 chip range of bets; and so forth.

With MBS, each hand number is regarded as an independent investment portfolio. These portfolios can be thought of as having the names “All of the First Hands,” or “All of the Second Hands,” etc. – hence the name, “Multi-portfolio Betting System.” Each hand number is a separate investment “universe” from the other hand numbers.

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Here is an example of an MBS regimen of betting ranges. (There is great flexibility in setting this up; this is but one of many possible MBS regimens.):

Off the top of the deck:
Betting range of 3-5 units.
Second hand:
1-5 units
Third hand:
2-8 units
Fourth hand:
1-5 units
Fifth hand:
2-7 units
Sixth hand:
2-8 units
Collectively, the various bet spreads average out to be about 1:4.
Bet ratios:
Second hand is 1:5 ratio;
Third hand is 1:4 ratio;
Fourth hand is 1:5 ratio;
Fifth hand is 3.5:1 ratio;
Sixth hand is 1:4 ratio
– thus, approximately a 1:4 ratio for the whole deck.
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Here's an arbitrary example of how the above MBS betting scheme might play out.
1st hand: Count neutral. 4 units bet. (Opening bet is any amount from 3-5 units; I arbitrarily selected 4 units. The off-the-top bet amount could be based on the last bet made in the previous deck.)
2nd hand: Positive count. 5 units bet. (Upper limit of 1-5 units.)
3rd hand: Negative count. 2 units bet. (Lower limit of 2-8 units.)
4th hand: Positive count. 5 units bet. (Upper limit of 1-5 units.)
5th hand: Positive count. 7 units bet. (Upper limit of 2-7 range.)
6th hand: Neutral count. Bet 5 units. (Flexible bet from the middle area of the 2-8 range.)
Following is a condensed overview of the above plays – a shorthand version, if you will – where “0” = neutral count; “p” = positive count; “n” = negative count; and bet amounts are in numerals. The first character in each row corresponds to the first hand; the second number in each row corresponds to the second hand; and so forth:
0,p,n.p,p,0
4,5,2,5,7,5
In the above example, the first bet was 4 units at a neutral count; the second bet was 5 units with a positive count; the third bet was 2 units with a negative count; etc.
With this MBS betting scheme, in the example above, a spread averaging roughly a 1-4 ratio was achieved, but with a more haphazard-appearing betting pattern than what a conventional 1 unit/2 units/4 units AP bet “ladder” would generate.
Compare the increased stealthiness of the MBS bet pattern with that generated by a conventional 1 unit/2 units/4 units bet ladder:
MBS Results:
0,p,n.p,p,0
4,5,2,5,7,5
1-2-4 Results
0,p,n.p,p,0
2,4,1,4,4,2
MBS is well-suited to a cover act that involves appearing as if you are carelessly grabbing chips with little thought when making bets. This what-the-hell-let's-party demeanor fits in well with the relatively erratic-appearing bet patterns generated by MBS. To improve the act, one could mix chip colors to add to the impression of absent-mindedly grabbing chips on a whim.
Doing an MBS “act” involving looking like a careless bettor mixing chip colors “randomly,” requires increased practice in two areas:
1) Effortlessly remembering the number of the hand and the bet spread for each hand;
2) Being able to accurately grab the right bet amount from a pile of different colored chips, while appearing not to think about it.
One situation where you'd have to tread carefully would be when you are at the top of one of the higher-range spreads (such as hand #3, with a bet of 8 units with a solidly positive count); followed by the count dropping into the negative range for the following hand having a low betting range (such as hand #4 with a 1-5 spread). In such a case, it would usually not be a good idea to drop from 8 units to 1 unit. You would possibly want to sacrifice some of the gain by dropping to 2 or 3 units. The same would apply to jumping from a low to high bet. Then again, if you have been using MBS long enough for the pit or the eye-in-the-sky to think you are a whimsical, shoot-from-the-hip bettor, you would be more likely to get away with occasional big bet variations.
Following are a number of off-the-top-of-my-head examples demonstrating what the betting pattern would look like in various scenarios for the MBS system vs. the 1-2-4 system. Here's how these random examples play out:
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MBS Results:
0,p,p,p,n,n
4,5,8,5,2,2.
1-2-4 Results:
0,p,p,p,n,n
2,4,4,4,1,1
***************
MBS Results:
0,n,p,p,p,p
5,1,8,5,7,8..
(Might have to give up some EV on hand #2, because of dropping from 5 units to 1 unit.)
1-2-4 Results::
0,n,p,p,p, p
2,1,4,4,4,4
***************
MBS Results:
0,p,p,0,n,p..
5,5,8,3,2,8
1-2-4 Results::
0,p,p,0,n,p
2,4,4,2,1,4
***************
MBS Results:
0,p,n,n,p,0...
3,5,2,1,7,3
(Bet #5 is a big jump – might need to sacrifice some EV.)
1-2-4 Results::
0,p,n,n,p,0.
2,4,1,1,4,2
***************
MBS Results:
0,p,p,p,p,p
4,5,8,5,7,8
1-2-4 Results::
0,p,p,p,p,p
2,4,4,4,4,4
***************
MBS Results:
0,n,n,n,n,n
5,1,2,1,2,2
1-2-4 Results::
0,n,n,n,n,n
2,1,1,1,1,1
***************
Notice that in all these cases, the MBS system achieves an approximate 1-4 spread without looking as obvious as the conventional 1-2-4 betting system. In particular, the MBS system can work well in situations where the bet goes positive or negative for the entire deck. The 1-2-4 system calls for the player to make the same bet hand after hand (either maximum or minimum), whereas the MBS system allows the player to make the minimum bet (for negative decks) or the maximum bet (for positive decks) again and again while also changing the value of the bet with each successive hand. It may be that double deck is the best game for MBS, because the count jumps aren't as erratic as single deck.
There is a vast number of possible variations in setting up an MBS betting regimen. The key point is: Treat all of the first hands as a separate portfolio with a predetermined betting spread; treat all of the second hands as a separate portfolio with a predetermined betting spread; and so forth. The gain from this approach is that the betting can appear more haphazard than actually is, contributing to career longevity.

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ADD: I received three comments.  Two thought it was an interesting idea.  One, from MathBoy, said that the idea was already known.